The European Commission shows in the economic forecast that one million migrants who, as expected, will arrive to the EU this year, and 1,5 million more which are expected in the following, will be able to increase growth rates of the European economy.
According to the estimates of European Commission if a half of the arrived is granted a political asylum, and three quarters from them will be working-age, it will increase total of labor of the European Union by 0,1% this year, and for 0,3% in 2016 and 2017.
It, according to experts, will directly be reflected in growth of the European economy: this year migrants will give additional growth in 0,14% of GDP, and in 2016 and 2017 – already 0,18%. These data are right for low-paid labor. In case qualification of migrants is comparable with Central European, indicators can be higher: 0,21% this year and on 0,26% in 2016 and 2017.
Thus the European Commission recognizes that migrants can render easy negative effect on public finance of the EU, having increased load of social infrastructure. As a result in 2016 and 2017 budget deficit of the European Union can grow in addition by 0,04% in 2016 and 2017, however in process of integration of migrants this effect will start smoothing out and deficiency – to be reduced. As expected, by 2019 it will in addition be reduced by 0,05%.
“As migrants are distributed on EU countries unevenly, the expected positive effect from arrival of refugees for the majority of EU countries is limited” – the European Commission also notes. According to the estimates of experts, will Most of all win the countries to which migrants most of all seek to get, and also the countries through which passes their route – their GDP can grow in addition by 0,2% this year.
Will benefit from inflow of migrants and Sweden which at the moment is one of the main countries accepting migrants – this year migrants can already add it 0,5% of GDP. As for Germany which until the end of this year plans to accept 800 thousand people, next year migrants stimulate it with GDP for 0,43%, in 2017 – for 0,56%, and by 2020 the effect from arrival of migrants will make already 0,72% of GDP.
Thus GDP growth will not improve quality of life of Germans – it is expected that this year GDP will per capita be reduced by 0,6%, and in 2020 will be still reduced – approximately by 0,3% a year. Thus load of public finance all the same remains: even at the most optimistical scenario in 2016 Germany should spend in addition for migrants additional 0,25% of GDP, and in 2020 – only 0,05%..
Subscribe to Website via Email
Democracy in a Federalised Europe
powered by WassUp