EU Referendum

Brexit has the edge in the referendum battle because its voters are more likely to turn out, David Cameron’s election mastermind declares after studying new poll

  • With 100 days to go, Sir Lynton Crosby said Out voters are more motivated
  • He insisted the result remained ‘in the balance’ but Brexit is in front 
  • David Cameron has urged In voters to ‘play their part’ in securing victory 
  • For the latest on the EU referendum visit

Supporters of leaving the European Union are more motivated to turn out on referendum day and could give Brexit the edge, Sir Lynton Crosby has said.

The Australian analyst, who steered the Conservatives to election victory last year, said the Leave campaign had a lead in the most recent poll but said data on turn out was more important.

He said Brexit backers were more likely to turn out on June 23 – turning a knife edge two point lead for Leave into a much more significant seven point advantage.

Normal voter intention data suggests only a narrow lead, pictured using today's ORB data, for the Leave campaign but Sir Lynton Crosby has said this is not the best indicator 

In analysis for the Daily Telegraph, Sir Lynton said the final result remained ‘in the balance’.

David Cameron has marked 100 days until the referendum with a new warning about the risks of quitting the EU.

The Prime Minister, in a video for the Britain Stronger in Europe campaign, urged voters to ‘play their part’ in securing ‘lower prices in the shops, more jobs and safer streets’.

The new poll, by ORB, showed that both sides were almost neck and neck, with Remain on 47 per cent and Leave on 49 per cent.

However, when likelihood to turn out was taken into account, the Leave campaign had the edge, on 52 per cent, while Remain trailed with 45 per cent.

A third of undecided voters (31 per cent) said fear of uncontrolled immigration was their main reason for not immediately backing Remain.

Sir Lynton warned that the government’s Project Fear campaign could fail as voters viewed staying in the EU as risky as leaving.

Sir Lynton, who has refused to run either side of the campaign, said: ‘Those voters who are undecided or likely to change their minds believe risks of both leave and remain to be real and locked in deadlock.’

The Australian election mastermind said turn out data was key - and the ORB data shows a seven point lead for Leave if only those certain to turn out and vote are included

Both sides could point to the potential impact on public services to make their case, Sir Lynton added.

‘The truth is that it is only with a strong economy you can pay for a good NHS, better schools and more police. But it is also true that the more pressure you put on the NHS, schools and the emergency services through greater use, the more they will suffer.’

Mr Cameron said: ‘In a hundred days you’ll have your say – whether Britain remains in a reformed Europe enjoying all the benefits that brings, like lower prices in the shops, more jobs and safer streets,’ he said. ‘Or whether those benefits are put at risk by leaving.

‘We have a hundred days left to secure our future. It is a decision that will affect your future, your family’s future and the lives of everyone in our country.’

The Tory leader added: ‘Britain is stronger, safer and better off in Europe. Families across the country have more security and greater opportunity as part of the European Union.’

The latest ORB poll shows little change from one carried out by the same pollsters at the end of February, involving 2,000 people, for The Independent.

As with the Daily Telegraph poll, it found a 52-48 per cent split in favour of Leave, which widened to 54-46 per cent in favour of Brexit when people’s likelihood of voting was taken into account.

Sir Lynton Crosby, right with David Cameron, centre, and Lord Feldman, left, on election night is credited with masterminding the Tories' general election victory last year

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