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EU Referendum

Exclusive Latest Brexit Poll Update: UK Voters Say Bye Bye to the EU

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Editor’s note:  This is the real poll to watch.  It is subscribed to by people who are actually motivated one way or the other and have no need to lie as is often the case with telephone polls to people who often do not normally care one way or another but may give an answer that ‘it is probably the right thing to do’ from whatever source that they have heard the arguments from)

Our ongoing Brexit poll, which asks the question Do you expect the June 23 Brexit referendum result to be the UK leaving or staying in the EU?, continues to attract strong interest with the number of respondents now well exceeding 1,000. The results, meanwhile, are significant and continue to show strong expectations for Brexit, which remain in contrast to public polls that show a close outcome.

We continue to ask our new respondents for feedback as to why there is such a disparity between our poll (which has been very consistent) and public polls. Given the way public polls missed the last election results there seems to be a distrust of public surveys. The insights expressed continue to be very revealing:.

As one respondent noted,

The polling organizations have a poor record on recent votes in the UK  (e.g. Scottish independence referendum and the UK national election)
The inherent vice is the selection process used i.e. the method of selecting the people they poll and the methodology used i.e. telephone calls, most people I know take a fiendish delight in lying to pollsters. The result will be decided by those who will actually vote and the outers are more motivated and more likely to vote than the inners.

Another respondent said,

Polls are not always accurate, as was found out during the last general election. When asked face to face or on the phone, people do not always say what they think, often they respond to the way they have been asked.

Another respondent expressed this view:

The main reason the polls are wrong is because people tend to lie when being questioned, hence the Tories winning the last general election against the poll indicators. When the E U vote comes thousands will come out to vote for Brexit. All the silver surfers will crawl to the polling booths and I predict 65% in favour to leave. I talk to real and honest people….

This one put it simply,

Older people do not answer the phone or email but will vote to leave.  Younger people will answer but do not vote.

Terror attacks in Brussels

This past week saw a new factor added to the mix with the terror attacks in Brussels sending some tremors through the forex market. Sterling fell on concerns that the tragic events would have an anti-EU backlash on the immigration issue that would favor the Brexit side.

As one respondent said,

The Brussels terrorist attack will not help the remain vote, but memories are short and June 23 is some way a way.

Click to Participate in Our Brexit Poll

 

Brexit Poll Results:

The overall results continue to show high expectations for a Brexit outcome.

Overall results to date Mar 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 26
Brexit = leaving the EU 58% 85% 85% 86%
No Brexit = staying in EU 42% 15% 15% 14%

 

Past week results; UK expectations down slightly but still highly elevated

UK Respondents Mar 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 26
Brexit = leaving the EU 83% 91% 90% 84%
No Brexit = staying in EU 17% 9% 10% 16%

 

Past week results: Non-UK respondents

Non-UK Respondents Mar 20 Mar 20 Mar 20 Mar 26
Brexit = leaving the EU 12% 53% 58% 70%
No Brexit = staying in EU 78% 47% 42% 30%

 

Breakdown: Total # Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 26
UK Respondents 88% 85% 90%
Non-UK Respondents 12% 15% 10%

 

To sum up, the trend in our tracking poll continues to show overwhelming expectations that the June 23 referendum vote will result in the UK leaving the EU. Our results did not seem to be overly influenced by the Brussels terror attacks judging from the responses both before and after this event. There was a slight downward shift in the UK responses this past week, which make up most of the poll, but they remained at more than 4 out of 5 expecting Brexit. We will be watching to see if there is a further shift but the trend since we started the poll continues to strongly expect a vote for Brexit. As noted, this is in sharp contrast to public polls and bookmaker odds.

Worth noting is that sterling fell sharply this past week following the Brussels attacks. The cost of sterling/dollar options, which cover the 3 month period beyond the June 23 referendum, surged higher as traders and investors looked for downside protection or placed wagers on a further fall in the currency ahead of the vote. Sterling staged a modest pre-holiday recovery but remained down on the week. The FX market seems to be the place more than equities at this time acting as a barometer of Brexit sentiment.

Click to Participate in Our Brexit Poll 

 

Jay Meisler, founder

Global Traders Association

http://www.global-view.com/forex-trading-tools/research/index.html?nid=37557

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