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EU Referendum

Are your neighbours IN or OUT? The map that shows how Britain’s coastal regions are leading the charge for Brexit and graduate towns are backing EU membership

  • Kings Lynn, Tendring, and Boston have high proportion of Brexit-backers
  • South Staffordshire has highest proportion of Brexit supporters in the UK 
  • Towns with high graduate populations such as Cambridge, Edinburgh, Bristol and Oxford are among the most pro-EU areas in Britain
  • Major study of 60,000 Yougov responses conducted by University of Bristol
  • It finds oldest voters three times more likely to vote Brexit than youngest 

A major study of voting records from polling experts shows how each local authority is likely to vote in June’s EU referendum.

Land-locked South Staffordshire has the highest proportion of Brexit supporters but most of the other areas with high support for leaving the EU are on England’s coast, including Boston, Kings Lynn and Tendring, which includes Ukip’s only constituency of Clacton.

Former Industrial areas in the West Midlands also revealed a high proportion of Brexit supporters.

The more Eurosceptic an area, the darker the shading, with the lightest areas showing the most pro-EU local authorities

Meanwhile the areas with the highest support for staying in the EU include towns with a large population of young people and graduates.

These areas include Oxford, Cambridge, Bristol, Edinburgh and Brighton, while the most pro-EU authority in the country is the inner-London borough of Lambeth.

The more Eurosceptic an area, the darker the shading on the map, with the lightest areas showing the most pro-EU local authorities.

The graph – drawn up by academics at the University of Bristol – was based on responses from 60,000 people in YouGov polls, census data and results from the 2014 European Parliament elections and last summer’s General Election.

It attempted to work out how people are likely to vote based on their age, educational qualifications and where they live.

As expected, Scottish and Welsh voters are among the most pro-EU voters in the UK.

Voters with fewer qualifications are less likely to vote to stay in the EU than those with degrees, according to the study

Voters with fewer qualifications are less likely to vote to stay in the EU than those with degrees, according to the study

The analysis confirmed assumptions that the older the voter, the more likely they are to vote to leave the EU.

In a stark contrast, the oldest voters are on average three times more likely to vote for Brexit than the youngest voters.

The analysis also found ‘substantial differences’ over how middle-aged and older people will vote depending on their educational qualifications.

Voters with fewer qualifications are less likely to vote to stay in the EU than those with degrees, according to the study.

Bristol academics Professor Ron Johnston, Professor Kelwyn Jones and David Manley wrote: ‘Our map of the percentage support for Brexit according to this model shows some very clear geographical patterning.

‘At one extreme are the two clusters of local authorities where support for leaving the EU is very low – in almost all of London and most of Scotland.

‘Against this, the areas with most support for Brexit are concentrated along much of England’s east coast plus some of the older industrial areas (notably in Yorkshire and the West Midlands), with pockets along the south coast too (mainly local authorities with large retired populations).’

The analysis came as the EU referendum debate intensified after George Osborne published a major Treasury report that claimed Britain’s GDP could fall by the equivalent of £4,300 for every household by 2030 if Britain leaves the 28 state bloc.

Osborne on Brexit: ‘Britain will be permanently poorer’

The analysis came as the EU referendum debate intensified after George Osborne (second left) published a major Treasury report that claimed Britain's GDP could fall by the equivalent of £4,300 for every household by 2030 if Britain leaves the 28 state bloc. He presented the document alongside Environment Secretary Liz Truss (far left), Energy Secretary Amber Rudd (second right) and Work and Pensions Secretary Stephen Crabb (far right)

The basic rate of income tax could have to rise by 8p to fill a £36billion hole in the government’s finances, according to the 200-page document.

But the report embarrassed David Cameron after Treasury officials admitted that his target of cutting immigration to under 100,000 will be missed.

The analysis predicted that net migration will still be almost double the Prime Minister’s target by 2021.

And they insisted none of the post-Brexit scenarios they had considered would result in a reduction to the immigration figure.

Corbyn: Not sure where Osborne gets his figures from

The basic rate of income tax could have to rise by 8p to fill a £36billion hole in the government's finances, according to the 200-page Treasury document 
The basic rate of income tax could have to rise by 8p to fill a £36billion hole in the government’s finances, according to the 200-page Treasury document

‘The population and migration projections which underlie the modelling were used by the OBR in their Economic and fiscal outlook accompanying Budget 2016,’ the report stated.

‘It is assumed that population growth will slow in line with the ONS’s current principal population projections.

‘In the principal projection, total net international migration to the UK falls from 329,000 per year in 2014 towards 185,000 per year from 2021 onwards.’

According to ONS estimates, net migration to the UK will be more than 1.6million up to 2021.

Official figures for net migration to the UK in the year to September 2015, published by the ONS

If the figure then remained in line with their longer term forecast of 185,000 a year until 2030, the population would have grown by more than three milllion people.

Jonathan Portes, former chief economist at the Cabinet Office, said: ‘The Treasury assumes that immigration continues to evolve in line with ONS forecasts.

‘This means that it assumes both that government policy – to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands – is ineffective, and that Brexit makes no difference either to the numbers or the skills mix.

‘Given the centrality of immigration and free movement in the political debate on Brexit, this is difficult to understand.

‘There is a strong consensus among UK economists that free movement has been beneficial to the UK economy and public finances, as outlined by the Bank of England, but simply ignoring this issue seems like a major omission.’

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3546306/Are-neighbours-map-shows-Britain-s-coastal-regions-leading-charge-Brexit-graduate-towns-backing-EU-membership.html

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