EU-funded report reveals free movement increases Brussels migration by 500 PER CENT

STRUGGLING British families will enjoy a bumper pay rise if the Government holds its nerve and opts for a hard Brexit, EU-backed academics concluded in a shock report today.

Theresa MayGETTY

Wages will rise for working families if the Government goes through with a hard Brexit

Experts from a Brussels-funded think tank admitted that wages for average workers will grow by nearly one per cent if ministers make drastic cuts to EU migration.The dossier, from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), also said slashing immigration will have no effect on the job prospects of British citizens.

It will provide further ammunition for Brexiteers calling on Theresa May to honour the result of the EU referendum by prioritising border controls above single market access.

And they conclude that once Britain withdraws from the scheme levels of EU immigration will fall back to around those in 2003, before the eastern bloc countries joined.The research paper – titled The Economic Impact of Brexit-induced Reductions in Migration – said that ending free movement will have a significant negative impact on GDP.

Emily ThornberryAFP

Labour is gunning for a soft Brexit with no border controls

Protestors outside the Supreme Court call for continued freedom of movementAFP

Protestors outside the Supreme Court call for continued freedom of movement

But it is the finding that EU migration depresses wages which is the most politically significant, given the large number of working class voters who backed Brexit.According to the academics a “moderate” exit deal, whereby freedom of movement is ended but EU citizens are given preferential treatment, would boost salaries by 0.51 per cent.

But in the event of a “hard” Brexit, where Europeans are subjected to the same border controls as everyone else, that figure rises to 0.82 per cent.

In the second scenario, UK families would see their earnings boosted by an average of £220 a year by 2030.

People in lower skilled jobs such as construction, hospitality, and agriculture would especially benefit from a reduction in immigration, the report concluded.

We estimate that free movement with the UK results in an increase of approximately 500 per cent

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

It was compiled by academics Jonathan Portes and Giuseppe Forte who are both from NIESR, which receives research funding from the European Commission.They state: “Over the longer term, the impact of the June, 23rd vote on migration will depend on the migration system adopted by the UK after Brexit.

“Over the last decade the UK resident population originally from other EU member states has more than doubled, to more than 3 million, and continues to rise rapidly.

“We estimate that free movement with the UK results in an increase of approximately 500 per cent – that is, by a factor of six.”

The report concludes that whilst slashing immigration would “reduce overall employment” the losses would be almost entirely made up of jobs currently carried out by EU citizens.

And it adds: “Reducing worker inflows…would increase – by small amounts – wages for some low-paid groups.

“We therefore calculate the (positive) impact on wages of a reduction in EU migration.”

However, the academics caution: “This does [not] mean such workers would be better off over all – that would depend on how the wider economic impacts of Brexit affected them.”

The report calculates that reducing immigration, alongside restrictions on trade and lower investment, will lead to a drop of between 2.73 per cent and 5.19 per cent in GDP in the event of a moderate Brexit.If the Government opts for a hard Brexit this will increase to a loss of between 4.35 per cent and 8.18 per cent by 2030, as well as a “significant” reduction in productivity.

The report was released as MPs debated a crunch motion in the House of Commons over the Government’s plans to trigger Article 50.

Theresa May has caved in to demands to reveal her negotiating strategy to MPs, but only if they agree to back her timetable for leaving the EU.

Leave a Reply

Help put the World to rights and leave a Comment

Notify of
Powered by: Wordpress
%d bloggers like this: